518
FXUS63 KBIS 060537
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
BLENDING IN OF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ARE MAINLY
REFLECTED IN ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND DECREASED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF AN EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. OVERALL, CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR AND ALL
WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPDATES FOR THIS EVENING WERE MINOR AND MAINLY BASED ON
BLENDING LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNSET, AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
PERSISTANT CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAIN OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARMING
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ODD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EJECTING OFF OFF OF A RETROGRADE HUDSON BAY LOW MAY INDUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES, THOUGH OVERALL
PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND NON-IMPACTFUL.
A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW
CHANCES (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) FOR PRECPITATION ADVERTISED BY
SHORT TERM CAMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT
SATURATION ABOVE 4-5KFT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT FROM A UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE COULD PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH MUCH OF THE SATURATED LAYER FALLING
WITH THE DGZ, AND WITH SEASONABLE COOL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S,
THESE SHOWERS COULD FALL AS EITHER RAIN, SNOW, OR A MIX OF BOTH.
AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS PERIOD
INDICATES THAT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY, WHICH MAY HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE INCITING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH BROADLY EXPECTED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, FROM THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST
TO THE MID 20S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, PROMOTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE COOL, FROM THE UPPER 40S EAST,
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATEST, TO THE MID 50S WEST, WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING HIGHS BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THOUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO PROMOTE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY,
SIMILAR TO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
SLIGHTLY STALLING THE WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
INCREASING CAA AND A MODERATE MID LEVEL JET SWINGING AROUND THE
RETROGRADING LOW DURING THIS PERIOD, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A BREAKDOWN OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS ANTICIPATED AS LONG-TERM MODELS ADVERTISE
THE EVENTUAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE RETROGRADING LOW FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
MORE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA, AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD APPROACH KJMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10
KTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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