152
FXUS63 KBIS 070607
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- WARMER BEGINNING THURSDAY, BUT SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- ONLY OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
ONLY NOTABLE FORECAST CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
THE SKY IS RAPIDLY CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING, IN ADDITION TO WINDS TRENDING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. UPDATES WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE WERE MINOR AND
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
EMBEDDED S/WV CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. OPTED TO REMOVE ANY PRECIP
MENTION WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SIMPLY TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SKY COVER WAS ALSO MODIFIED BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND TRENDS, WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TONIGHT. NO OTHER
MAJOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH THE HUDSON LOW
CONTINUING. SOME CLOUD COVER COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING, WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST FOR THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BRINGING MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20S. WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST. LATER IN THE
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL GREATLY LIMIT THIS THREAT AND HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING, LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING AND GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
ENCROACH ON THE AREA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS COMBINE WITH THE MENTIONED INCREASED
WINDS COULD BRING SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE MENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL COOL ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE 60S. SATURDAY COULD AGAIN SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ON
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH VALUES, AND PERHAPS LESS WIND
FORECAST. ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS BEGINS FRIDAY, MAY
8TH. LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MAY NECESSITATE ONE OF THESE PRODUCTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. FRONT STALLS ON SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
HUDSON BAY LOW PUSHES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A FLAT
RIDGING PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, BREEZY WINDS, AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY THE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS COME ON MONDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD EVEN BRING A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S,
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S, COMBINED WITH THE
MENTIONED BREEZY WINDS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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