892
FXUS63 KBIS 071728
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL ELSEWHERE.
- SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED NEXT WEEK.
- ONLY OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY UPDATED THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. OVERALL THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS WERE BLENDED IN FOR THIS UPDATE. TODAY WILL BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE LOW
AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
IT IS ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND TEENS. IN
FACT, BISMARCK HAS PRELIMINARILY TIED A DAILY RECORD LOW AT 22
DEGREES! OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED IN FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MORE OR LESS PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A QUIET WEATHER
DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER A BENIGN SURFACE PATTERN. AN
APPRECIABLE WARMUP IS ALSO EXPECTED, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MUCH CLOSER TO, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS COULD SKIRT ACROSS THE MONTANA
BORDER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE WEST, BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IS VERY LOW, IF NOT ZERO. THE QUIETER WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST
IN THE 30S. LOW-LYING SHELTERED AREAS COULD STILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE ANOTHER
LEAP FORWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NBM SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTING TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CONCERNING AREA IS THE FAR NORTHWEST
WHERE WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY
AND STRONG WINDS. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED, WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS IS OFTEN
CORRESPONDENT TO LARGER WILDFIRES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR DIVIDE, WILLIAMS, AND MCKENZIE COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SECONDARY AREA OF GREATER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ON FRIDAY THAT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED WITH
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS TO THE WEST.
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. MAGNITUDES OF
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE NOT THAT HIGH,
SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIND GUSTS BEYOND WHAT IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON (WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
WEAKEN FRIDAY EVENING). THERE IS A POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON ON ACCOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH
ABOVE-CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WITH/TRAILING THE FRONT AS
DCVA INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CAM OUTPUT INDICATE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. ON
THE AGGRESSIVE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE 00Z NAMNEST BRINGS A
LINEAR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, BUT ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM MUCAPE IS ONLY AROUND
200 TO 300 J/KG, SO THIS SOLUTION SEEMS LIKE AN UNREASONABLE
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
WARM UP IS FAVORED ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST FROM EAST (STILL COOL) TO WEST (WARMER). FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS NOW INCREASING ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY ON A HIGHER-AMPLITUDE, TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PRECEDING A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
COULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR PERHAPS
ABOVE 80 ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. BUT
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THOSE ELEMENTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR
OUTCOME OVER OTHERS. THE IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR MONDAY IS
THAT THE STRONGER THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES, THE MORE THE RISK
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASES. THE NBM HAS ALREADY BEEN
HIGHLIGHTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A WIND
SHIFT IN PLAY FROM THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM, TUESDAY COULD FEATURE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. BUT OVERALL,
THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-AMPLITUDE, PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK THAT COULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
REGION. BUT THERE IS ALSO A SOLUTION THAT WOULD PLACE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER AN ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
TO PROLONG THE STRETCH OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER FROM KXWA TO KDIK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY THEN RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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