723
FXUS63 KBIS 081745
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
- WARMER AND WINDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- WARM AND WINDY WEATHER NEXT WEEK COULD LEAD TO DAILY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE AREAS ARE SEEING HIGHER THAN
FORECAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY, DECIDED TO EXPAND. ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE IS SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE EVALUATED FURTHER
FOR A LATER UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
STAY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE EXITED THE
AREA WITH QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING. OTHERWISE, MAIN CHANGE WAS
TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THROUGH BOWMAN COUNTY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
RADAR SHOWS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
OF AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z BIS RAOB. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED IN
FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. TODAY WILL BE WARMER
BUT WINDIER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN DOWN FROM CANADA
BY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO TO MID 70S YIELDING
AFTERNOON RH AROUND 20 PERCENT COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR NORTHWEST AND
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED, WITH MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. MOST CAMS ARE
SIMULATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH- BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BECOMING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONGER
DCVA THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
ENSEMBLE RANGE OF OUTCOMES IS FROM ZERO CAPE TO AS MUCH AS 500
J/KG, WITH THESE DIFFERENCES APPARENTLY BEING DRIVEN BY SURFACE
DEWPOINT UNCERTAINTY. AN EXAMPLE OF THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO,
WHICH MAY BE BORDERLINE UNREASONABLE, IS THE 06Z NAMNEST THAT
BRINGS A MATURE BOWING SEGMENT AS PART OF AN MCS THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREAS THIS EVENING. UP TO
500 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST, BUT WE ARE QUITE
SKEPTICAL OF THE MID 40S DEWPOINTS IN THE NAMNEST. HREF MEAN
DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSER TO 40, AND THE HRRR IS IN THE MID 30S.
MEANWHILE, THE RAP ACTUALLY HAS LOWER 40S DEWPOINTS PAIRED WITH
ZERO CAPE. NEVERTHELESS, IN THE ABSENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WORST-CASE SCENARIO, DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
COULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS STRONGER THAN THE BACKGROUND BL
MOMENTUM TRANSFER GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN YET ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE
GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS TODAY, SO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY BOTH TONIGHT AND ON A MUCH WIDER
BASIS SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COOL DOWN TO HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES IN
THE 20S AND NORTHWEST WINDS STILL BREEZY AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
COULD LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE, BUT IT MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. SUNDAY SEES A SLIGHT
WARMUP WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS AN AMPLIFIED TRANSIENT UPPER
RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE ROCKIES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A POTENT SHORTWAVE/
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES
ON MONDAY AND DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW THE 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE 80. THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW BRINGING MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND THUNDERSTORMS) TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THAT EVERY
CLUSTER CONTAINS A NARROW RIBBON OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH NO LOWER THAN 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE A GIVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS
STILL HIGHER ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 850 MB
WINDS FOR MIXING POTENTIAL. A BRIEF, SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS ON TUESDAY COULD BE FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES MORE PERSISTENTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO SHOW NEAR-EQUAL
PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER A PROGRESSIVE, HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE
PATTERN OR STAGNANT WESTERN CONUS RIDGING. FOR EITHER SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OUTCOME, CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS FORECAST TIME RANGE
REMAIN LOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAILY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHICH IS FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST SITES HAVE PROB30 GROUPS IN TAFS FOR
THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE KJMS AREA. SATURDAY THEN SEES A MIX OF CLOUD
COVER WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE FOUND TODAY BECOMING A STEADY NORTHERLY
WIND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
RED FLAG WARNING NOW EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA GIVEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE
STATE IS IN A RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHILE
REMAINING AREAS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, SLIGHTLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
WINDS DIMINISH YET REMAIN A STEADY NORTH WIND TONIGHT. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED TONIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN.
LOWER DEWPOINTS (THAN STRAIGHT NBM) WERE BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT, LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON HAS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED
FROM PREVIOUS ITERATIONS, BUT STILL HAS NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH, STRONGEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA. BECAUSE
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH ARE NOT FORECAST TO GREATLY
OVERLAP, ONLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING
MESSAGED FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
AFTER ONE DAY OF MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY, A LONG STRETCH
OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ENTERS THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXPERIENCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY FALLS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MORE OR LESS
CONTINUES IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
DAILY GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMUM RH AROUND 20 PERCENT. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST WINDY DAY IN THE WEST, BUT PERHAPS THE
WINDIEST DAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A SECONDARY AREA
THAT SHOWS UP REPEATEDLY IN NBM GUIDANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER NEXT WEEK IS A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BOUNDED BY INTERSTATE 94, THE JAMES RIVER, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
LAKE OAHE. DAILY DETAILS FOR FIRE WEATHER BEYOND THE MONDAY/
TUESDAY TIME FRAME REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS UNDOUBTEDLY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LONGER DURATION OF HIGH- IMPACT FIRE
WEATHER, AT LEAST UNTIL FUELS START TO GREEN UP.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009>011-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-
025-055>058.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN
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