402
FXUS63 KBIS 090601
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
101 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
- NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND MOST
OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARM AND WINDY WEATHER NEXT WEEK COULD LEAD TO DAILY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. TRAILING THIS FRONT IS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING AND HIGHER-END WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED. THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, EXITING THE STATE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.
CURRENT HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 PM CDT, AND A FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALREADY
SEEING TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY THAT COULD BE
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST WERE OVERALL MINOR AS MOST WEATHER
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AS WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES REMAINS. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, CURRENTLY BEING
NOTED IN CENTRAL CANADA. INSTABILITY OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE LEADING TO INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS, SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO
BRING SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS DURING PASSAGE
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
TONIGHT, WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE NORTH. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 30S
TONIGHT. GIVEN TODAY HAS BEEN DECLARED THE START OF THE GROWING
SEASON, THIS MEANS FROST IS LIKELY. THUS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 200. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST
TEMPERATURES YET NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE STATE SATURDAY. BEFORE DOING SO
INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES IN THE 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY THE MORE ELEVATED WINDS TOMORROW DO NOT ALIGN UP WITH
THE LOWER RH VALUES, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR OR SLIGHTLY
MORE WIND COULD INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER. THUS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORDING FOR
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE 30S. MORE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH DETERMINING WHERE EACH IS NEEDED STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OVERALL THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN BE FOUND FOR SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW, ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER DANGER
THREAT. A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS, LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL EXCEPT IN SOME WESTERN
PORTIONS.
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN
NEAR DAILY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM SOUTHERLY WIND, BECOMING A WINDY
NORTHWEST WIND SOMETIME LATER MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE MENTIONED LOW THIS COULD
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
WINDS WITH THESE POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS. A POST FRONTAL DAY
IS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY, WITH THE ECMWF EFI VALUES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
INDICATING PERHAPS SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. LOW RH VALUES
COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS COULD AGAIN BRING NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TUESDAY BEING IF THE LOWER RH VALUES LINE UP WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS, WHICH RIGHT NOW THEY ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW
COULD THEN REPEAT THIS PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING A
WINDY YET STILL WARM WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SECOND LOW LOOK MINIMAL RIGHT NOW. THIS
DRY LOW COULD CONTINUE THE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK, THE CHANCES FOR FROST AND FREEZE
PRODUCTS ARE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHTER
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE
FOUND. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE FOUND ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS FORECAST IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
THESE WILL BE THE AREAS OF GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY FALL SHOWER OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH LIGHTS
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST.
AFTER SUNDAY, A LONG STRETCH OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ENTERS THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HUMIDITY FALLS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MORE OR LESS CONTINUES IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH DAILY GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMUM
RH AROUND 20 PERCENT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST WINDY DAY
IN THE WEST, BUT PERHAPS THE WINDIEST DAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. A SECONDARY AREA THAT SHOWS UP REPEATEDLY IN NBM
GUIDANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NEXT WEEK IS A PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BOUNDED BY INTERSTATE 94, THE JAMES
RIVER, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND LAKE OAHE. DAILY DETAILS FOR FIRE
WEATHER BEYOND THE MONDAY/ TUESDAY TIME FRAME REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
BUT THERE IS UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LONGER
DURATION OF HIGH-IMPACT FIRE WEATHER, AT LEAST UNTIL FUELS
START TO GREEN UP.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-055>058.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN/HOLLAN
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