779
FXUS63 KBIS 100300
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, THUS FREEZE WARNINGS AND
FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- DAILY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK MAY LEAD TO DAILY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. WE CONTINUE WITH A
VERY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO
THE 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE RED FLAG WARNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN NORTHWEST WHERE THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH
HIGH SETTLING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO, WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN
RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE OVERLAP OF THE HIGHER WINDS
WITH THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OVER. WITH THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACES, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, BUT SOME CLOUDS
LOITERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY KEEP THAT AREA A BIT WARMER.
THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A FROST ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS TO THE EAST KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BEHIND
THE HIGH AS UPPER RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE, HIGHS WILL PUSH ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEST, BUT
STILL MAY STAY A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OVER OUR EASTERN
LOCATIONS. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START INCREASING
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL SEE AFOREMENTIONED LEE SIDE TROUGH CLOSE OFF AND
MOVE EASTERLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES, AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUSTS THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BRINGING A VERY WARM DAY TO PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S OVER OUR WEST. SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SLIDE THROUGH WITH THE PASSING LOW, WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CAUSE ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST (AGAIN SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW). TO
THE EAST, HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AREA OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ONLY BE CAPE VALUES OF
200-500 J/KG, QUITE HIGH FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (50-60 KTS
EFFECTIVE BULK) IS NOTED, THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THEREFORE HAVE PAINTED IN LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER PARTS OF OUR EAST.
ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID, THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BE QUITE MILD, SO EXPECT HIGHS TO
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A FEW DISTURBANCES MIGHT MOVE
THROUGH, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS LEAN WITH PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH EVEN THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE OF TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN NOTABLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-
033-035>037-046>048-050-051-055>060.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031-032-040>044-061-062.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...NH
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