704
FXUS63 KBIS 101742
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER MUCH
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MONDAY ACROSS
WESTERN THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL ND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK MAY LEAD TO DAILY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
FOR MID-DAY UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS WE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR FOSTER, STUTSMAN, LAMOURE, AND DICKEY COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THIS
AREA, BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE WHETHER SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERK UP A LITTLE SOONER THAN FORECAST OVER THIS AREA, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOWS. WITH THAT SAID, THE POSSIBLE THREAT
IS THERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPIRE FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE STORY FOR THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND FREQUENTLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE BIGGEST OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE IN
REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. THOSE ARE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.
FOR TODAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH HIGHS IN MID 50S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST. FOR TONIGHT,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW ENCROACHES FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID 40S IN
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER, IT'S POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
INITIAL WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SECONDARY SURGE IN WINDS OF SIMILAR VALUES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THIS ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE. THE STRONGEST CAA AND PRESSURE RISES ARE
FAVORED AFTER 0Z, WHICH MAY RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE STRONGEST CAA AND PRESSURE RISES SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SUNNY SKIES WILL
AID IN A GOOD MIXING DAY THAT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE, WHILE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FURTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE ND/MT
BORDER. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ENCROACHES INTO THE STATE AND DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FAVORED TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK. THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY DOES CREEP IN
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR EXAMPLE, HALF THE
CLUSTERS PRODUCE ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE OTHER
HALF SHOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THURSDAY REACHING
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
AND THE RETURN OF LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN FAVORED TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, BECOMING GUSTY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF WESTERN
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN THE
EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE FURTHER WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN, AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN, NORTH
DAKOTA. IN REGARD TO DEWPOINTS, AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING BRIEF HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND THEREFORE, SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ND MONDAY. ONE THING THAT COULD FURTHER
COMPLICATE MATTERS IS THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL ND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER ENHANCED AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
83, THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY ALONG AND EAST. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WEAKER WINDS
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER ARE FORECAST
FURTHER WEST. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
TANK IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE
EAST. COMBINED, THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
COMBINATION OF ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE CONTINUED MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS WESTERN
THROUGH CENTRAL ND WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
CONSISTENTLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. PERIODICALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS BECOME DECREASES TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS THURSDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ENTER THE
PICTURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH ALL THIS, ADDITIONAL DAYS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA ARE POSSIBLE TO FINISH OUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>048-050-051.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ025-037-048-
051.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
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