823
FXUS63 KBIS 102048
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER MUCH
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MONDAY ACROSS
WESTERN THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL ND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK MAY LEAD TO DAILY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA, WITH TROUGH
NOTED TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVER OUR AREA, QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE STORY FOR THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND FREQUENTLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE BIGGEST OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE IN
REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. THOSE ARE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.
FOR TONIGHT, A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE,
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA AND MOVES EASTERLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. LIGHT
WINDS OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH
THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST. OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN AREA, WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVING TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THEREFORE A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FOSTER, STUTSMAN, LAMOURE,
AND DICKEY COUNTIES.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE BUSTS THROUGH
THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE, BECOMING QUITE GUSTY ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AS WE GET TOWARDS MID DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
WEST, WITH WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ENTERING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MAINLY
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATED RIBBON OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND
SLIDING EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ONLY BE CAPE VALUES OF ~200-500
J/KG, QUITE HIGH FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (50-60 KTS EFFECTIVE
BULK) IS NOTED, THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WITH HIGH-
RES MODELS STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT IN LOW
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS MOVING IN IS QUITE MILD IN TEMPERATURE, GOOD MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE WINDY,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SURFACE HIGH PASSES OVER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AGAIN COINCIDING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT.
AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS CLUSTERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THUS THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, BECOMING GUSTY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN THE
EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE FURTHER WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN, AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN, NORTH
DAKOTA. IN REGARD TO DEWPOINTS, AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING BRIEF HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND THEREFORE, SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE HIGHER AND LOWER VALUES. STILL, STRONG
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ND MONDAY.WHAT COULD
FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS IS THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER ENHANCED AND
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
83, THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY ALONG AND EAST. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WEAKER WINDS
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER ARE FORECAST
FURTHER WEST. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE
EAST. COMBINED, THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FURTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
COMBINATION OF ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE CONTINUED MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS WESTERN
THROUGH CENTRAL ND WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
CONSISTENTLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. PERIODICALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS BECOME DECREASES TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS THURSDAY. LOW
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ENTER THE
PICTURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH ALL THIS, ADDITIONAL DAYS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA ARE POSSIBLE TO FINISH OUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>048-050-051.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ025-037-048-
051.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/TELKEN
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