718
FXUS63 KBIS 221910
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING WIDESPREAD
AND EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE WINDY.
- OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS IS DRAPED BETWEEN TWO
LOW CENTERS, ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ONE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE, A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD PRECPITATION SHIELD
EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CAMS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MODEL MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 500 - 750 J/KG. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SERVER WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPING STORMS AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTH
INVITES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN GENERAL,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 0.25" TO 0.50" IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A PERIOD THROUGH WHICH
PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS THE INCITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, COOLER HIGHS BROADLY IN THE 50S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE PREVALENT CLOUD COVER, THOUGH SOME
PORTIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD APPROACH THE LOWER 60S BY
THE MID AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW ARE FORECAST TO DROP MAINLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY COULD ALLOW
SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
NOTABLY, WITH THE FRESH PRECPITATION AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
RETREATING EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
AS THE MERGER BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. WITH SUCH
A PATTERN, NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE EVENTUAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE MERGED LOWS
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WITH AN BUILDING RIDGE MOVING
IN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, NORTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO A A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE COMING WEEK. WITH THIS, HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE 60S AND 70S
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP INTO THE THE 80S AND LOWER
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN SIMILARLY
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. AMPLIFICATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
IS THEN EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A ROBUST
PACIFIC TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO HAVE FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST SOME DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE FURTHER TO
THE EAST BY THE INCOMING TROUGH. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE ENSEMBLE IS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO BROAD SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED. IN THE FIRST SCENARIO, AN
OPEN WAVE NUDGES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR
LOW CHANCES (10 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR PRECPITATION ACROSS THE WEST
SOME TIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SCENARIO 2
ADVERTISES A MORE ROBUST CLOSED LOW BUMPING THE RIDGE MUCH
FURTHER EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR SIMILARLY LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN EITHER SCENARIO, OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (30
PERCENT) FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST TO EXCEED 0.25" THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. NOTABLY, THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM DOES PAINT
LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAZARDS ON DAY 5(WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY), SO WE'LL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER IS INDUCING MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE ANOTHER PUSH OF RAIN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT KMOT. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO SIMILARLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY ALONG THE TAILING
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT KDIK WITH
THIS UPDATE. ALL FOG IS GENERALLY EXPECT TO LIFT BY EARLY TO MID
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL, THOUGH MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOT AND TURNING OUT OF THE EAST TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page