058
FXUS63 KBIS 230706
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
206 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE WINDY.
- OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW FOG BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CORRIDOR MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE
DISCUSSION, AND MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THIS FOG
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW COUNTIES,
SUCH AS DIVIDE, GOLDEN VALLEY, AND BOWMAN, WERE PRELIMINARILY
LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY THEIR
INCLUSION WITH NO OBSERVABLE FOG WITHIN OR EVEN NEAR THOSE
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AT 1 AM CDT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED BETWEEN ABERDEEN
AND SISSETON, SD, AND THE UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD GRAND FORKS. PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ROAMING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS QUICKLY BECOMING
DENSE FOG. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT
INCLUDES TIOGA, WATFORD CITY, KILLDEER, DICKINSON, AND
HETTINGER. GLEN ULLIN HAS ALSO RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY RIGHT UP AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS
THE FOG, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LATER ELEVATE TO
NEEDING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DID WIND UP OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. HOWEVER, A LOCALIZED
POCKET OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AS THE SUN
SETS, AND AS SUCH, LIGHTNING HASN'T BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST
HALF HOUR OR SO. WHILE A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE ISN'T ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS LOW. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER A BIT TO
MATCH THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH HAVE MOSTLY ENDED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. A FEW HEAVIER AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
MAINLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WEST OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. WHILE THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING EARLIER,
THESE HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED THUNDER FREE SO FAR. STILL, A FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS AND PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS IS DRAPED BETWEEN TWO
LOW CENTERS, ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ONE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE, A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD PRECPITATION SHIELD
EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CAMS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MODEL MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 500 - 750 J/KG. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SERVER WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPING STORMS AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTH
INVITES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN GENERAL,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 0.25" TO 0.50" IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A PERIOD THROUGH WHICH
PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS THE INCITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, COOLER HIGHS BROADLY IN THE 50S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE PREVALENT CLOUD COVER, THOUGH SOME
PORTIONS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD APPROACH THE LOWER 60S BY
THE MID AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW ARE FORECAST TO DROP MAINLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY COULD ALLOW
SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
NOTABLY, WITH THE FRESH PRECPITATION AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
RETREATING EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
AS THE MERGER BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. WITH SUCH
A PATTERN, NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE EVENTUAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE MERGED LOWS
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WITH AN BUILDING RIDGE MOVING
IN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, NORTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO A A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE COMING WEEK. WITH THIS, HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE 60S AND 70S
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP INTO THE THE 80S AND LOWER
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN SIMILARLY
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. AMPLIFICATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
IS THEN EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A ROBUST
PACIFIC TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO HAVE FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST SOME DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE FURTHER TO
THE EAST BY THE INCOMING TROUGH. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE ENSEMBLE IS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO BROAD SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED. IN THE FIRST SCENARIO, AN
OPEN WAVE NUDGES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR
LOW CHANCES (10 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR PRECPITATION ACROSS THE WEST
SOME TIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SCENARIO 2
ADVERTISES A MORE ROBUST CLOSED LOW BUMPING THE RIDGE MUCH
FURTHER EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR SIMILARLY LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN EITHER SCENARIO, OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (30
PERCENT) FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST TO EXCEED 0.25" THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. NOTABLY, THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM DOES PAINT
LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAZARDS ON DAY 5(WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY), SO WE'LL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY AT IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS. MEANWHILE, DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING AT KDIK. THE DENSE FOG COULD EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BEFORE DISSIPATING
MID SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FOG LIFTS AND CEILINGS SCATTER
AND RISE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ002-009-010-017-018-032-033-040>042-044-055-059.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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