192
FXUS63 KBIS 240241
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
DIURNAL CU IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS SUCH, THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FURTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS LOW. ALL IN
ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS MERGE IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF ONE OF THESE LOWS FURTHER
SOUTH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PROMOTE LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE, A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH, TO THE MID 70S
IN THE FAR WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 40S. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
VERY WEAK AND BECOME CLEAR, THOUGH POOR NEAR SURFACE SATURATION
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH EVEN HERE OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY LOW LYING AREAS.
WARMING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE MERGING LOW IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD BY A BUILDING RIDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL DURING THE TRANSITION, MAINLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTH EAST. AS THE DEPARTING LOW BEGINS TO RETROGRADE OVER
HUDSON BAY, AND AS AN INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UP
INTO A MODIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE FROM MAINLY THE 80S ON SUNDAY INTO MAINLY THE
LOWER TO MID 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY RECORD RECORD
BREAKING HEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS SPITS OUT A LOW INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE SYSTEM, BECOMING STRONG OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE LATER OF THE WEEK, THE
ENSEMBLE ADVERTISES THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO BEING DISPLACING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH THIS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS STILL REVEALS TWO BROAD SCENARIOS
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE POSSIBLY
LIMITED BY THE RETROGRADING HUDSON BAY LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION (APPROXIMATELY 70 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) FAVORS A STUBBORN HUDSON BAY LOW, AND THUS MORE ROBUST
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THIS, THE CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COMPARABLY WET MINORITY
CLUSTER (APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT OF MEMBERS), IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING
FOR PRECPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. IN EITHER SCENARIO, OVERALL PRECPITATION ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE TO EXCEED 0.25" OF RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, LONG TERM MODELS BROADLY ADVERTISE THE
BLOCKING PATTERN FULLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE GENERAL TREND TO PLACE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. WE COULD
EXPECTED A RETURN OF NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS PATTERN, WHILE THE 25TH
TO 75TH PERCENTILE HIGHS FALL BROADLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
DIURNAL CU IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH HAS BEEN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL, AS WELL AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...TELKEN
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