429
FXUS63 KBIS 241720
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS COMING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
QUIET, CLEAR, AND CALM WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID DAY UPDATE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THIS TIME, AS IT
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AT THE TIME OF THIS LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED ALONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET OVER NORTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS ALSO SINCE LIFTED AS DIURNAL
HEATING KICKS IN. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP, SO WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. OVERALL, NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND A
DEPARTING MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A S/WV MID LEVEL
RIDGE. A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A SFC TROUGH
OVER EASTERN MONTANA NORTH INTO WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FLARED UP THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND,
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. FOR NOW, OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT OVERALL EXPECT IT TO BE
DRY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL, ALONG
WITH LITTLE IF ANY FORCING ALOFT AND MINIMAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS AND
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MAINLY DRY, BUT DO HIGHLIGHT MY NORTHERN
TWO TIER COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT QPF, WHERE SOME ELEVATED
MUCAPE DIPS DOWN FROM THE PLAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH GENERAL THUNDER, SO OPTED TO
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY 21Z-03Z TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS EMBEDDED WAVE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IN RESPONSE TO A
POTENT UPPER LOW PROPAGATING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST COASTAL REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THE WARMEST AIRMASS THUS FAR THIS YEAR INTO
OUR REGION, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH MON AND TUE IN THE MID 80S
TO MID 90S, NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK, STRENGTHENING A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST. AS A RESULT,
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WED. IN ADDITION, WILL LIKELY SEE A
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTTIME, SO CAN'T
RULE OUT EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. RIGHT NOW
NBM KEEPS MON NIGHT DRY, BUT DOES INTRODUCE CONVECTION TUE
NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING/DISPLACED EAST, WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS LOW SLOWLY
STARTS TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION WHILE IT MOVES EAST AND MORPHS
INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL HOWEVER GIVEN A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, BEFORE REORGANIZING OUT OF THE
WEST SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ADAM
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