076
FXUS63 KBIS 250536
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY.
- MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TUESDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS COMING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE WARM AND DRY
WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THESE MAY PUSH EASTWARD
AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, IMPACTS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, A CLOSING PACIFIC TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL IN BETWEEN. HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE FAR WEST POSSIBLY TICKLING THE LOWER 90S. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, BUT IS
FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH MUCAPE DROPPING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE,
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE COMING WORKWEEK AS IT'S SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE GREATER PENETRATION OF THE THERMAL
AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS, NEAR TO RECORD HIGH MAX
TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH EVENINGS AS A POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS SPITS OUT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO MONTANA TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR WEST BOTH DAY, NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH/OPENING
LOW FURTHER EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
WARMING TREND TO STALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, AS WELL AS INDUCE CHANCES FOR PRECPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE LOW IN MONTANA IS LIFTED
ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER,
THOUGH STILL WARM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS THE ENSEMBLE STRUGGLES TO
RESOLVE HOW WELL THE THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO DISPLACE THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (APPROXIMATELY 85 PERCENT) FAVOR TO THE
COMPARABLY WET SOLUTION, WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH ABLE TO
DISPLACE THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL TO GET SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (15 PERCENT)
STILL FAVOR A MORE STUBBORN HUDSON BAY LOW THAT LOCKS THE RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST. IN EITHER SCENARIO,
OVERALL PRECPITATION TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE FURTHER
BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
A PATTERN WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z FORECAST PERIOD.
A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WIND WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...NH
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