582
FXUS63 KBIS 251122
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER TODAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PRODUCT
ISSUANCE. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COASTAL REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL RESULT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO OUR WEST AMPLIFYING
TODAY INTO TUESDAY AND DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TREND TEMPERATURES
WARMER TO START THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN POSSIBLE
NIGHTTIME ELEVATED CONVECTION. VARIOUS CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY EACH
NIGHT (INCLUDING TONIGHT), WHILE THE NBM KEEPS TONIGHT DRY BUT
DOES HAVE CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL, SO WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TO OUR
WEST AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE WEST (WHERE HRB/FUEL MOISTURE IS LOWEST). WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
THEREAFTER, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DISPLACED EAST AS THE WESTERN CONUS LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST/MORPHS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR A COOLING TREND AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, AND THE LATEST NBM SHOWS THESE TRENDS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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