984
FXUS63 KBIS 261954
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
226 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CURRENTLY A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, CREATING A LARGE RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SITS IN EASTERN MONTANA, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90S TODAY, ALONG WITH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE,
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS HAVE AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WITH AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THIS CAPE EXISTS IN AN
EAST/WEST CORRIDOR LAID ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THE
CAPE DOES DECREASE AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS LOWER, HOWEVER MOST
CAMS DONT HAVE STORMS FIRING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS LOOK TO BE EAST
OF JAMESTOWN INITIALLY, BEFORE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, PROBABLY ONLY ONE INCH HAIL FOR HAZARDS. SPC HAS OUR EAST IN
A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL IN TURN
CREATE THE ALL TOO WELL FAMILIAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE FAR WEST. ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR THE SAME FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FINALLY MOVES EAST. THIS COULD CREATE DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS GENERALLY. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH, CENTRAL, AND EAST. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION, LEFT THEM OUT OF MOST TERMINALS FOR NOW. TIMING LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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