252
FXUS63 KBIS 262330
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AGAIN WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ISOLATED POCKETS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE THIS CUMULUS WAS OVER RUN BY HIGH
BASED CLOUDS, A BRIEF POP-UP SHOWER AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DEVELOPED. WHILE THIS SHOWER HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CURRENTLY A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, CREATING A LARGE RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SITS IN EASTERN MONTANA, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90S TODAY, ALONG WITH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE,
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS HAVE AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WITH AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THIS CAPE EXISTS IN AN
EAST/WEST CORRIDOR LAID ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THE
CAPE DOES DECREASE AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS LOWER, HOWEVER MOST
CAMS DONT HAVE STORMS FIRING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS LOOK TO BE EAST
OF JAMESTOWN INITIALLY, BEFORE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, PROBABLY ONLY ONE INCH HAIL FOR HAZARDS. SPC HAS OUR EAST IN
A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME. VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL IN TURN
CREATE THE ALL TOO WELL FAMILIAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE FAR WEST. ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR THE SAME FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FINALLY MOVES EAST. THIS COULD CREATE DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY
REMAINS LOW. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR LIGHT TSRA AT KJMS WITH
THIS UPDATE. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, REDUCED VISIBILITY
AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, BECOMING STRONG FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY BRIEF INDUCE
WIND SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTIONS AT KDIK WITH THIS
UPDATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...ADAM
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