124
FXUS63 KBIS 271445
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY (HIGHS IN THE 90S).
- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
EAST THIS MORNING, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY, AND WILL POSSIBLY RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DYING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. MORE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING IS A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. STILL EXPECT THESE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH HIGH OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOWS OVER THE SIERRA, AND OVER QUEBEC INTO ONTARIO,
WHILE WE SIT IN THE MIDDLE WITH BLOCKED RIDGE OVER OUR REGION.
WITH THAT SAID, A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS RESULTING IN SOME PERSISTANT WEAK SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
GENERALLY FROM VALLEY CITY TO RUGBY TO BOTTINEAU. SHEAR OVER
THIS AREA REMAINS WEAK, SO STORMS HAVE JUST WEAKLY PULSED UP AND
DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR TODAY, A FEW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, A HOT DAY IS ON TAP OVER THE AREA UNDER THE
PERSISTANT THERMAL RIDGE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE
90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT AREA REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
PERSISTANT BLOCKED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS, GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (ESPECIALLY
WEST) AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER OUR FAR WEST FOR THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND PERPETUAL UPPER RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES
EAST A BIT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE SIERRA FINALLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST INTO THE ROCKIES, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODEST COOLING TREND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK CLUSTERS INDICATE
A SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS, BUT WITH THAT SAID THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS EACH DAY TO START THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY, STRONGEST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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