062
FXUS63 KBIS 271955
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY (HIGHS IN THE 90S).
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY, AND NEAR-CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
SITS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT HAS SLIDE SLIGHTLY EAST FROM
YESTERDAY. AT THE SURFACE YESTERDAY'S STATIONARY FRONT LAYS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, HENCE THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH STICKING AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS
PATTERN OF HOT, DRY, AND VERY WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SAME FAR WESTERN ND COUNTIES AS TODAY. ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN,
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEARING 100 DEGREES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WEST. A
SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST SLIGHTLY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA WILL START IT'S JOURNEY
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LEADING TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFOR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, POSSIBLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S, BUT ALSO VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AFTER THIS WEEKEND THAT LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST, CONTINUING OUR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DAILY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ALL VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY WILL GUST AROUND 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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