530
FXUS63 KBIS 101751
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.
- DAILY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, STRONGEST ON
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THEN HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OF ND. HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO
THE EAST AND ANY ENHANCED SHEAR SET TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST,
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE SMALL AREA OF DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE
HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ALL IN ALL, THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS EXIST AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
ONE IS A LINEAR BAND FROM EASTERN SIOUX COUNTY THROUGH BISMARCK
TO AROUND HARVEY, AND THE OTHER IS A BROADER AREA APPROACHING
WILLISTON. A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN DETECTED SOUTH OF
BISMARCK WITHIN THE LAST HOUR, BUT HAVE BEEN VERY INFREQUENT. TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS, A TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS CONVECTION IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE,
SO FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD THIS PERSIST INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, A SMALL
AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE FOG SHOULD NOT SPREAD ANY FARTHER,
AND SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN/NORTHERN
US ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE UPPER JET AT ITS BASE
POINTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO WYOMING, THEN CURLING BACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL OFF TO THE EAST INTO
MINNESOTA, BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS IS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
WHICH MAY BE GETTING ASSISTANCE FROM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THERE IS ALSO A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA THAT COULD PIVOT INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY, PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A
STRONGER STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING UP OCCASIONALLY IN A HANDFUL OF
CAMS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY, BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-35 MPH.
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
COLLOCATED WITH THE 700 MB VORT MAX WILL SWING A BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY MORNING. THE Q-VECTOR FORCING IS PROJECTED TO WANE BY
THE AFTERNOON, BUT CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING COULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON ITS OWN, BUT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TOO WEAK. THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WINDIER THAN TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH.
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MEANDERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AFTER A BRIEF AND SLIGHT WARM UP ON FRIDAY, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. SHELTERED, LOW-LYING AREAS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE COULD EVEN DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S THIS WEEKEND IF OVERNIGHT SKY AND WIND CONDITIONS BECOME
FAVORABLE. DAYTIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AT AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE
LATEST NBM MAINTAINS A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME GIVEN
THE PREDOMINANT CYCLONIC FLOW. EVEN WEAK DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY
BE HARDER TO COME BY THIS WEEKEND THOUGH DUE TO THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS.
ENSEMBLES FAVOR A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PERSISTING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING LINGERS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
BUT CLUSTERS DO SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND
AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL UNTIL EITHER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OR
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL LATER NEXT WEEK. ASIDE
FROM A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY, THE NBM MAINTAINS A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST, WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PRESENT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN SOUTH OF
KJMS, SO WENT WITH SHRA FOR THE TEMPO, THOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO
BE AMENDED DEPENDING HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED COME THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. WINDY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE WEST WILL LET OFF A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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