454
FXUS63 KBIS 111940
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STATEWIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
CURRENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS ARE
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALL ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
PRESENT POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS WELL UNDER
1000 J/KG, WITH SHEAR AROUND 15KTS. AS THE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS,
SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY. MOST CAMS
HAVE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO
THAT WAS ADDED TO THE POP FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND A SLIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA, ENDING THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT
SURFACE HIGH WILL PULL COOLER TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP. DURING THIS
PERIOD, WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK EAST OVER THE
STATE. LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE AGAIN MONDAY, RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CREATE MORE
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE
WEEK COULD EITHER BE A SLIGHT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, OR
ZONAL FLOW WITH ACTIVE SHORTWAVES MOVING IN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 30KTS,
CALMING TO 10 TO 20KTS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR
LATE THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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