062
FXUS63 KBIS 112342
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STATEWIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING, ALSO DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL EMBEDDED ENERGY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AND
CLOUDS TO START DECREASING AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET AND
ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
CURRENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS ARE
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALL ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
PRESENT POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS WELL UNDER
1000 J/KG, WITH SHEAR AROUND 15KTS. AS THE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS,
SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY. MOST CAMS
HAVE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO
THAT WAS ADDED TO THE POP FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH, AND BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND A SLIGHT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN MONTANA, ENDING THE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL PULL COOLER
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. LEADING TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SETUP. DURING THIS PERIOD, WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK
EAST OVER THE STATE. LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AVERAGE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE AGAIN MONDAY, RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CREATE MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK COULD
EITHER BE A SLIGHT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, OR ZONAL FLOW
WITH ACTIVE SHORTWAVES MOVING IN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING,
DISSIPATING AT OR AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH THE SKY
TRENDING MORE FEW-SCT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THIS EVENING, DECREASING WITH TIME. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER DAY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...NH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page