785
FXUS63 KBIS 121501
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH ON-
AND-OFF LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, WHICH ARE ADDRESSED BY SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DETECTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ALSO TRYING TO ENTER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING BEYOND
SPRINKLES IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT A 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THESE
PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHER FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MAINLY JUST TO BLEND IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY. AN INCREASING STREAM OF SHEAR-
INDUCED CYCLONIC VORTICITY OVER A MID/LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH HIGHER TODAY AT AROUND 30-40 KTS,
BUT WITH WEAKER CAPE, POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WELL BELOW THE TROPOPAUSE. THIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS CAN BE SEEN SIMULATED BY A COUPLE OF
CAMS. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY, SHOULD THEY EVEN DEVELOP, IS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 65 ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN FROM CANADA THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS WILL
MAKE SATURDAY FEEL UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60
TO 65 AND NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. THE
DCVA WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY GENERATE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE (BUT
STILL ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE TOO
FAR AWAY TO ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THE NBM STILL FAVORS WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND 40
TO 45 SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST.
A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLES STILL FAVORING MEAN TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUT NOW EITHER SHIFTING THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OR SHOWING IT TO BE MUCH MORE
DEAMPLIFIED THAN EARLIER ITERATIONS. THIS SHOULD STILL PROVIDE A
WARM UP FROM SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN SUNDAY REMAINING DRY WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SUBTLE TRANSIENT MID/UPPER RIDGE
PASSING THROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
APPEARS TO INCREASE ON MONDAY, WITH THE NBM MAINTAINING A 20 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE ON MONDAY, BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE AT LEAST A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THUNDERSTORMS, COULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM THAT CARRIES A TYPICAL
AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS
FORECAST TIME RANGE. CONCEPTUALLY SPEAKING, THIS COULD CAUSE
WEDNESDAY TO BE A WINDIER DAY FOR SOME, EVEN BEYOND WHAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE MIGHT FINALLY TRY TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-20
KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BACK OFF TO
AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD DOWN FROM CANADA, REACHING KMOT AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING KXWA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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