117
FXUS63 KBIS 121945
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL A BIT FOR MID-WEEK.
- SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THEN DRY UNTIL MONDAY
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN END OF THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER RESULTING IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
CENTER OF UPPER LOW NEAR THE SURFACE FEATURE, WITH MODESTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT
POP-UP RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT THEN DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A WINDY AND CHILLY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOL AND WIND, THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING, ALBEIT LIGHT. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PASSING BY.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LOITER AROUND NORTHERN ONTARIO KEEPING
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA, WITH A VARIETY OF
SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO A
LITTLE BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WITH THE EXPECTED
SPARSE COVERAGE AND QUESTIONABLE TIMING HAVE NOT NOTED THE
SHOWERS IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER MANY PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT SOME QUESTION EXISTS AS
TO HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CEILINGS WILL EXTEND.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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