462
FXUS63 KBIS 130223
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL A BIT FOR MID-WEEK.
- SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THEN DRY UNTIL MONDAY
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS THE SUN BEGINS ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE HORIZON, DIURNAL CU
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS WELL. THEY TOO
WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS, THOUGH SHOULDN'T GO COMPLETELY
CALM TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN END OF THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER RESULTING IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
CENTER OF UPPER LOW NEAR THE SURFACE FEATURE, WITH MODESTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT
POP-UP RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT THEN DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A WINDY AND CHILLY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOL AND WIND, THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING, ALBEIT LIGHT. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PASSING BY.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LOITER AROUND NORTHERN ONTARIO KEEPING
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA, WITH A VARIETY OF
SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO A
LITTLE BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED, WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH SHOULDN'T GO COMPLETELY CALM
TONIGHT. ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS THEN ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THEM FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN PRIOR
GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD KEEP MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF KMOT AND NORTH
OF KJMS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS FORECAST AND THESE
LOWER CEILINGS COULD WIND UP FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH IN THE END.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TELKEN
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