053
FXUS63 KBIS 130616
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
116 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY, AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FOR MID-WEEK.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THEN DRY UNTIL
MONDAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY STREAK AND/OR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS FALLING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, HUGGING THE ND/SD BORDER. PREVIOUS
FORECASTS INDICATED THE EXISTENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN, BUT WERE
GENERALLY TOO FAR SOUTH. A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WAS INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE, GENERALLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS THE SUN BEGINS ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE HORIZON, DIURNAL CU
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS WELL. THEY TOO
WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS, THOUGH SHOULDN'T GO COMPLETELY
CALM TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN END OF THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER RESULTING IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
CENTER OF UPPER LOW NEAR THE SURFACE FEATURE, WITH MODESTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT
POP-UP RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT THEN DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A WINDY AND CHILLY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOL AND WIND, THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING, ALBEIT LIGHT. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PASSING BY.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LOITER AROUND NORTHERN ONTARIO KEEPING
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA, WITH A VARIETY OF
SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO A
LITTLE BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THEM
REACHING KMOT OR KJMS REMAINS LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING HAS DECREASED, AND ANY
RAIN WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AVIATION SHOULD IT OCCUR.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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