210
FXUS63 KBIS 142302
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S. BREEZY CONDITIONS SOME AREAS, BUT WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A BAND OF HIGH CIRROSTRATUS IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, THE SOUTHWEST GOT
DOWN TO 30, AS TODAY HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL PREVENT THAT. MONDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE STATE FROM CANADA, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY (IN THE 70S). DURING THIS TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, KEEPING US IN THIS ACTIVE
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF FOOTPRINT LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE
WEST AT 0.50 INCHES. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AND NO MAJOR
JUMP STARTING FEATURES TO KICKOFF EXPLOSIVE STORMS, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SINCE THE PATTERN WON'T BE CHANGING,
TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH EITHER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MORE
OR LESS GET "STUCK" IN SOUTHERN CANADA UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN A
POSSIBLE CLIPPER PUSHES THAT LOW EAST.
THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH ALL THESE SHORTWAVE
SURGES AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST
CONCERNING WINDY DAY AS THE SOUTHWEST COULD HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30MPH, WITH GUSTS MAYBE AROUND 50MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHILE ITS RAINING AND WILL NEED EITHER AN ADVISORY OR
A HIGH WIND WARNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD
AND ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES (5 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASING HIGH,
THEN MID CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND MID MORNING AND
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY 15
TO 25 KNOTS MID TO LATE MORNING, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...TWH
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