037
FXUS63 KBIS 150639
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
139 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH. CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA, AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT
INTO NORTH DAKOTA, FAVORING THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A QUIET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND (IN THE LOW TO MID
30S) BUT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER IN THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NORMALLY
COLD HETTINGER AREA. RAP/HRRR 700-500MB RH INCREASES THROUGH
THE NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SO LIMITED ANY CHANGES TO THE FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12 UTC. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A STRAY STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST OR SOME HAIL WITH A FEW STONES UP TO NICKEL OR
QUARTER SIZE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BEST GUESS WOULD BE
ALONG/WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON,
WITH MINIMAL CAPE. AT MINOT AND BISMARCK SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG
BUT CAPE IS DECENT, AROUND 700 J/KG AT MINOT EARLY AFTERNOON TO
1000 J/KG AT BISMARCK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAYBE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BETTER SHEAR TO THE WEST AND GRATER INSTABILITY IN
CENTRAL ND. ALSO, THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 6500-7000 FT
TOMORROW RESULTING IN LOW 50DBZ HEIGHTS FOR SEVERE HAIL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S. BREEZY CONDITIONS SOME AREAS, BUT WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A BAND OF HIGH CIRROSTRATUS IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, THE SOUTHWEST GOT
DOWN TO 30, AS TODAY HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL PREVENT THAT. MONDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE STATE FROM CANADA, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY (IN THE 70S). DURING THIS TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, KEEPING US IN THIS ACTIVE
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF FOOTPRINT LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE
WEST AT 0.50 INCHES. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AND NO MAJOR
JUMP STARTING FEATURES TO KICKOFF EXPLOSIVE STORMS, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SINCE THE PATTERN WON'T BE CHANGING,
TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH EITHER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MORE
OR LESS GET "STUCK" IN SOUTHERN CANADA UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN A
POSSIBLE CLIPPER PUSHES THAT LOW EAST.
THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH ALL THESE SHORTWAVE
SURGES AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST
CONCERNING WINDY DAY AS THE SOUTHWEST COULD HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30MPH, WITH GUSTS MAYBE AROUND 50MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHILE ITS RAINING AND WILL NEED EITHER AN ADVISORY OR
A HIGH WIND WARNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION. THEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AND GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA COMPARED TO THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING, THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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