873
FXUS63 KBIS 152314
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
614 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING, THEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND 70S ALL OTHER DAYS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY'RE PULSEY AND IF SOMETHING WOULD GO
SEVERE HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, IT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF.
WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
CURRENTLY, AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH A
DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT TIMES OVER MY
CENTRAL AND EAST, BUT THUS FAR EVERYTHING HAS STAYED SUB-
SEVERE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH AS THESE STORMS FORM AND COLLAPSE
GIVEN LITTLE SHEAR PRESENT WHERE THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EMBEDDED WAVE, ALONG WITH
DECREASE CLOUDS AND WIND.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, WITH MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES
APPROACHING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF INITIALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON, MAINLY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH RATHER WEAK GIVEN MINIMAL CAPE AND
SHEAR. BETTER SHEAR TUE NIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE WHEN A S/WV TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. SPC HAS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND IN THE MARGINAL
STORM OUTLOOK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WINDY AND COOLER BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND COLD FROPA, ALONG WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
A SOLD WIND ADV, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS.
THEREAFTER, WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING SLOWLY WARMER, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JUNE, ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE JUNE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE
LOOK TOWARDS THE FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL END EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEN CLEARING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT WEST TO SOUTHWEST. VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY, GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TURNING WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON
TUESDAY, WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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