986
FXUS63 KBIS 161746
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING HAIL TO 1 INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE FOUND TODAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID DAY UPDATE. A
FEW SPRINKLES HAVE FALLEN HERE AND THERE, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS LIMITED OVERALL QPF REACHING THE
GROUND. TAKING A TOUR THROUGH NDDOT CAMERA REVEALS THAT MUCH
THIS PRECPITATION IS FALLING AS VIRGA. NO SHORT-TERM UPDATES
WERE PERFORMED AT THIS TIME, AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
FOR LONGER-TERM UPDATES, WE DID OPT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 12Z THROUGH 00Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SCATTERED WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID
MORNING UPDATE. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR, WITH RAIN HAVING TO PASS A FAIRLY DRY ABOVE
SURFACE LAYER ON ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST
PUSH OF PRECPITATION IS FOUND UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN,
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
ARE SHOWING UP IN THE WEST, ALTHOUGH LIMITED REPORTS HAVE BEEN
NOTED SO FAR. STILL LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS SOME UNORGANIZED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH
OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SOME
CAPPING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW COULD BE SOME BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, SURFACE
LOW MOVES SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN. WARM FRONT
STALLS AND THEN PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
END RESULT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SHEAR REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SETUP, ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY ANGLED TO THE MENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS STORM MODE COULD BE LINEAR TO
MULTICLUSTER TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER CAPE AND DCAPE
VALUES MAY ALSO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS RIGHT AT SEVERE CRITERIA TODAY.
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD INDICATE PERHAPS AN INCREASED HAIL
THREAT AT TIMES DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE MENTIONED FRONT.
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING SOME
INCREASED SRH TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHER LCLS AND A LACK OF
SUPERCELL STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TODAY. AS
THIS FRONT AND UPPER WAVE STALLS TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BRINGING IN COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. AN INCREASED GRADIENT, COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES, AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING SOME STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY,
LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY, YET STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, CLUSTERS INDICATING NORTHWEST
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LIKELY DEPENDING ON THE BUILDING AND
SUSTAINING OF A RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE
SPREADS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FROM
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE, WEAK WAVES IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CSU-
MLP CURRENTLY SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH, IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW COULD, HOWEVER, BRING SOME BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL, THOUGH THERE'S LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING MENTIONS
OF EITHER IN THE TAFS DUE TO POOR COVERAGE AND DRY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE. A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR TO LIFR LEVELS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AND TURNING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILLS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
BECOMING BREEZY TO STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040>044-061-062.
UPDATE...ADAM/ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ADAM
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