874
FXUS63 KBIS 162341
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING HAIL TO 1 INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE FOUND TODAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE IS AVAILABLE WITH 50KTS OF SHEAR. THE MINOT AFB RECORDED A
GUST OF 58MPH, BUT THAT STORM HAS WEAKENED SINCE. THE OTHER
STORM IN WESTERN WARD COUNTY STILL REMAINS WARNED FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE HAIL, WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ANY REPORTS YET OF THE HAIL. ANY
STORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH THE LACK
OF CAPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA, LOFTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AN INITIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY,
THOUGH A VERY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW 850MB WILL HELP LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF PRECPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS LOW, WITH WINDS
TURNING WEST NORTHWESTERLY FROM 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH. OTHERWISE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 70S CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WEST.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PICKING UP THE
COLD FRONT AND PUSHING IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 45 TO 50 KNOT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK INTO THE 750-1250 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST, MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE 800 MB, WHILE STRONG BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 55 TO 55 KNOTS. CONSIDERING THIS, AND
A FEW ISOLATED TO STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WINDS, AS DRY NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE HIGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH
THE PRECPITATION. WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY ELEVATED, AND WITH MOISTURE SATURATION THROUGH THIS
UNSTABLE LAYER EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, MOSTLY SMALL
HAIL CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THAT BEING SAID, THE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HAIL PRODUCTION IS SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, SO IT
WOULDN'T BE OVERLY SURPRISING TO SEE HAIL APPROACH 1.0" HERE.
THUS, WE WILL ADVERTISE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS IN SIZE FOR TODAY. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE MID
EVENING WHEN INCREASINGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN NORTHWESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
0-1KM SRH VALUES AROUND 100-125 M2/S2, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE SOME
VERY LOW TORNADO CONCERNS. WE WILL NOT ADVERTISE TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT,
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WEST, AND AS CAA
INCREASES ALONG AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN AN AREA SOUTH OF I-94 AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL JET
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM 12Z THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WITH PREVAILING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, COOLER HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTANT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, AND AGAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGHS LINGERING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S BOTH
DAY, WITH WITH NO STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, CLUSTERS REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN A FAVORED
WET SCENARIO AND A DRY SCENARIO. IN THE WET SCENARIO (55 PERCENT
MEMBERSHIP), NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS FLATTENED
BY THE RETROGRADING CANADIAN LOW DIVING SOUTH. WITH THIS
PATTERN, NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AS SHORTWAVES CUT ACROSS THE REGION. A COMPARABLY
DRY CLUSTER (45 PERCENT) ALSO EXISTS, WHICH FAVORS A MORE ROBUST
RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THERE IS MODEST
AGREEMENT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS A
PACIFIC LOW DIVES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN SHIFT
PANS OUT, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECPITATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT, THEN MVFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL CREATE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLY TO
50KTS. MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND SHOULD FILL IN WITH
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040>044-061-062.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...SMITH
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