522
FXUS63 KBIS 171450
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ON TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY FOR FRIDAY.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWESTERN DOWN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.
BOTH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE, INCREASED PRESSURE RISES AND
CAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HAS PROMOTED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING, PEAKING AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A BROAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS BASED
ON THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY, WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH PLACED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO. ALL WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TODAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND JET STREAK ALOFT
WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR SOME STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOME SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER TODAY AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT, LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. COOLER LOWS IN
THE 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THESE COOLER LOWS COULD BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR COULD BRING SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE FOUND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES. COOL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD AGAIN BRING HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. PATCHY
FOG WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH A STEADY WESTERLY WIND
LOOKS TO BE FOUND. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES IN ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
CLUSTERS STILL INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN US THIS WEEKEND LEAVING ND IN NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND,
WHILE THE WESTERLY FLOW OPENS THE DOOR FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH. THIS BRINGS ABOUT NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTROMS. OF NOTE ARE SOME CLUSTERS FAVORING
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWING HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. CSU-
MLP SHOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES, PERHAPS SOME BREEZY
WINDS COULD BE FOUND AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THE MENTIONED WEAK
RIDGING MAY TAKE MORE SHAPE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AND ATTEMPT
TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS COULD BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DIMINISHING
SOME BY MID NEXT WEEK. IF THIS RIDGE PATTERN CAN GET MORE
ESTABLISHED THESE CHANCES WOULD BE MORE DIMINISHED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING
MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ALTHOUGH
COULD STILL BRING SOME MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A
MIX OF PREVAILING AND PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED IN TAFS BASED ON
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING
TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040>044-061-062.
UPDATE...ADAM/ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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