197
FXUS63 KBIS 011659
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A CLIMB TO
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
(50 TO 80 PERCENT, GREATEST IN THE EVENINGS). SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (~20 TO 50
PERCENT) LINGER INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WERE ADDED
DURING THE MORNING UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND, THIS MORNING. WE EXTENDED THE LOW CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO,
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING CANADA UPPER LOW REMAIN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH
VERY BROAD HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SIMILAR FEATURES, WITH THE MANITOBA LOW BEING
NEARLY STACKED. OVER OUR AREA, MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN QUIET BUT A
LITTLE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TODAY, AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LOITERS OVER MANITOBA BEFORE
STARTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A FEW WEAK
WAVES WRAPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (~20
PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY OUR UPPER FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY AS
WE WILL BE BETWEEN A DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA, AND A BROAD HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
FLOW, WHILE AT THE SURFACE A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA, WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. CAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 40-45 KTS. THEREFORE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5). CAMS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON START, BUT
HAVE BEEN WAVERING A BIT, SO WILL KEEP PRODUCT TIMING GENERIC,
JUST SAYING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BRINING CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE MURKY
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED, BUT GUIDANCE VARIES SOME ON THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FOR NOW, SPC IS GOING WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MULTIPLE
SOURCES OF MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
BY INDEPENDENCE DAY UPPER FLOW TRIES TO SHIFT MORE ZONAL, BUT A
VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM WESTERN CANADA UPPER LOW
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH. THEREFORE, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AND CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEVERE STORM, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN MUCH
OCCURRING. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MANY AREAS PUSHING INTO THE 90S, THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT MONDAY
ONWARD THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE NBM 25TH/75TH,
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ABOUT RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. THEREFORE,
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EVEN WARMER (AND THE SAME FOR
COOLER) TEMPERATURES. DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER VARIOUS LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR A SHORT PERIOD THURSDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS,
BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. IT'S POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTIM.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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