072
FXUS63 KBIS 011957
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
(50 TO 80 PERCENT, GREATEST IN THE EVENINGS). SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE.
- SCATTERED (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH.
- ISOLATED (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND 60 MPH WINDS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (~20 TO 50
PERCENT) LINGER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS CLIMB
INTO THE MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS ENDED
OVER THE FAR SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, MOSTLY IN CANADA, BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS SNEAKING DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTTINEAU
AND ROLETTE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
RENVILLE. MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. ALL IN ALL AN NICE DAY FOR ALL THE
ACTIVITY GOING ON TODAY.
WE ARE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
LATEST CAMS DO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL KEEP THE POPS FOR CONSISTENCY BUT
THE INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND SHEAR IS NIL SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS
VERY LOW. THERE MAY BE A WEAK IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MOVING INTO ND, BUT OVERALL, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
QUIET OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
WE RATCHET UP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. A BROAD
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CAP BEING ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ND BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MONTANA. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ND NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH, AND ALONG AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND IF/WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG IT. CAMS ARE
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER, TO ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION VARIES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON TO LATE
AFTERNOON SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THURSDAY. IF/WHEN CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP THERE IS MAYBE A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE MODE.
CONVECTION ALONG AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE MIXED/MESSY
WITH AN INCLINATION TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH WINDS TO 80
MPH THE MAIN THREAT. AN INITIAL SUPERCELL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH BEFORE LINEAR CONVECTION PREVAILS. THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR INITIAL AND LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS (WITH LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL TO AROUND 2 INCHES) WOULD BE OVER WESTERN ND NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH LARGER T/TD SPREADS HERE (ESPECIALLY
THE WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST) THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
LOWER, BUT NOT ZERO, GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STORM
MODE. FINALLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO GREATER
THAN 1.5", ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER. AN ENHANCED RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES BECOME BETTER
CALIBRATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHER
WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST, OR
WHEREVER THE E-W BOUNDARY ENDS UP. THE THREAT FOR TO VERY LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS, WHICH
WOULD POINT TO WESTERN ND, WITH ALSO A TRANSITION TO A MORE
LINEAR WIND THREAT OVER TIME. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN EITHER AREA, BUT IS LOWER THAN THE HAIL/WIND
THREAT. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A TRANSITION FROM MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
ZONAL FLOW. THIS MAY LOWER THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WE
WILL SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS FOR THE MAIN HAZARDS.
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BUT
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, RATHER THAN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EACH DAY, BUT
WITH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR, AT LEAST FOR NOW. WE WILL HAVE TO PLAY
IT ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS FOR ANY EVENTUAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HEAT DOES RATCHET
UP WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MID AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR A SHORT PERIOD THURSDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS,
BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. IT'S POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTIM.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page