233
FXUS63 KBIS 021754
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THOUGH TIMING IS A BIT IN QUESTION. THE MAIN
EXPECTED HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY,
WITH 90S ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ANOTHER UPDATED FOR POPS AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
POPS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR WHERE I CUT THEM EARLIER. THIS
HOWEVER ISN'T REALLY THE MAIN SHOW. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF
UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE JUST SOUTH OF I-94 FROM BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN. THIS IS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAINLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. MARGINAL SHEAR WITHIN THIS AREA, BUT INCREASING HAIL
CAPE SO A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OUT
WEST, WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. HOPEFULLY WITH OUR 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH WE CAN GET A
BETTER IDEA OF CI. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE A TROUGH ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS STILL AN EAST-WEST PSEUDO-
BOUNDARY, OR MAYBE A PERSISTENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION THAT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH ARE FOCUS POINT FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY HAVE THROWN A BIT OF A
WRENCH INTO THINGS AS FAR AS CI THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE DO
SEE A LINGERING LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR,
TRAILING THE MORNING CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY. CAMS REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN THEIR
OUTCOMES AS WELL. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE STRONG INSTABILITY
REMAINS. THERE IS MORE CAPPING THOUGH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP ERODES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT YESTERDAY THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO CAP AT ALL. ALSO, ALTHOUGH
WE REMAIN WITHIN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW, AND YOU CAN SEE
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ON SATELLITE (ONE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
MT, AND ANOTHER IN NE WYOMING) IN GENERALLY THERE IS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN CI. THERE ARE 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES TODAY AND THE
HEIGHT FALLS THIS EVENING ARE RATHER MEAGER. THE LARGE HAIL
PARAMETER IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY, BUT IS SIGNIFICANT AND
REMAINS MAINLY OVER WESTERN ND. THE WIND THREAT ALSO REMAINS BUT
IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE HIGHEST DD CAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE STATE AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT QUITE AS STEEP. THE TORNADO
THREAT REMAINS LOW, WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
SUPERCELL STORMS.
WITH ALL OF THIS SAID, WE STILL HAVE A RISK FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN PULLED
SOUTH OF THE STATE BY SPC WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR THINKING
BASED ON GUIDANCE WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WERE FOR POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION. UPPED POPS FOR THE JRV
AND INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS AN
AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT THIS CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON
BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING IS LOW,
NOT ZERO, BUT LOW.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON. NEW DATA STILL
COMING IN BUT THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE TO LOWER
POPS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE STILL NOT CONSISTENT IN CI
AND RANGE FROM EARY-MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE LIKELY POPS GIVEN BY THE NBM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LOOK
OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION STILL LINGERING
AROUND. AS A START, WE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
THEN BLENDED TO THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES IN ANTICIPATED HAZARDS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT
THE STRONGEST ONES HAVE HELD NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ALONG
A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS THE STORMS HAVE ONLY PULSED, BUT OVER THE
PAST HALF HOUR OR SO THEY HAVE HELD THEIR STRENGTH BETTER, AND
HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA, WITH TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
WHILE BROAD HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. OUR AREA
REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED.
CURRENTLY, A MODEST SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS NOW SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
FOR THIS MORNING, AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ON ITS WAY.
CAMS HAVE GREATLY STRUGGLED WITH COMING TO A SOLUTION WITH THESE
STORMS, AND CONTINUE TO DO SO. WITH THAT SAID, IF ANYTHING WERE
TO BECOME SEVERE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN END WHICH
IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS NOTED AND SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE PULSED UP OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER NORTH, STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINLY
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. CAPE
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED AT ABOUT 40-50KTS. WITH
THIS ALL SAID, STORM TIMING REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION AS CAMS
AGAIN CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH INITIATION. ANOTHER PROBLEM
ADDED TO THIS WOULD BE HOW THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE INITIATION. WITH THAT ALL SAID, STILL EXPECT SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING POSSIBLY
INITIATING AS SUPERCELLS WITH A DOMINATE HAIL THREAT THEN
EVOLVING INTO CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS. SPC HAS BUMPED UP A
BROAD AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND (GENERALLY EAST OF BISMARCK AND
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 INCLUDING JAMESTOWN) TO AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
POTENTIAL WIND THREAT ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO THE
CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS. MOST REMAINING AREAS (MINUS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA) REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5).
ON FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ENTER THE
FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOME
QUESTIONS COME INTO PLAY WITH HOW PRECIPITATION EVOLVES, AS
MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING BUT THEN
A SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH (AGAIN, TIMING IS A BIT TRICKY). IN
ADDITION, THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE QUITE
LIMITED, THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.
ON SATURDAY MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
OVER THE EAST, BUT THEN LOOKS TO BE AN OVERALL QUIET DAY WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 90. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH RIDGE PASSING OVER, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S.
FOR THE BEGINNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, A BROAD
HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT
FOR OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE WE LOOK TO END UP IN A
PATTERN WITH VARIOUS WAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM TIME
TO TIME, KEEPING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CONVECTION IS EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR BACK TO THE BISMARCK AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS IN THE
FAR NORTH.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND +50 KT WIND GUSTS. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AT
LEAST IFR LEVELS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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