905
FXUS63 KBIS 022238
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
538 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE MAIN EXPECTED HAZARDS
INCLUDE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH, WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY,
WITH 90S ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
** MESOSCALE DISCUSSION **
THE SEVERE-STORM RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN ND, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN ITS EVOLUTION.
LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
AS OF 2230Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR GLENDIVE AND WIBAUX
MONTANA. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FEATURES WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISE TENDENCIES ALOFT, AND
GENERALLY-WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THAT SAID, THERE IS BROAD
SURFACE CONFLUENCE APPARENT IN EAST CENTRAL MT, WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO BECOME SUSTAINED IN
THAT AREA. WHILE THE BEACH AWOS SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER MAY BE SHALLOW, THE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S F ARE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCIN TO BE
MINIMIZED PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 18Z KBIS RAOB AND RECENT
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. IF THIS CONVECTION
CAN BE SUSTAINED IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES, OVERCOMING ANY
RESIDUAL (EVEN IF SLIGHT) WARM NOSE ALOFT, WE WOULD EXPECT IT TO
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND, PARTICULARLY
INTO GOLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THIS IS A CONDITIONAL SCENARIO, BUT THE CAPE-SHEAR SETTING AND
STEEP LOW- AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT EVEN IF A STORM BECOMES SUSTAINED, THAT IT WOULD
TAKE IT TIME AND FURTHER-EASTWARD REACH INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND BY
A COUNTY OR TWO IN ORDER TO INTERCEPT SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTENSIFY FURTHER. THAT IS IDENTIFIED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F IN THE DICKINSON AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.
OTHERWISE, SOME CAMS HAVE SIGNALED THE STORMS IN NORTHWESTERN SD
COULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND, BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY DEPEND
ON OR BE A RESULT OF LEFT-SPLIT SUPERCELLS GIVEN MEAN WINDS AND
SUPERCELL-MOTION VECTORS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS IN NORTHWESTERN SD, BUT ONLY THE LEFT-MOVING VECTORS
FAVOR PROPAGATION OF THIS PARTICULAR ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWESTERN
ND. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE-STORM RISK IN PARTS OF
BOWMAN, ADAMS, AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS,
AS WELL.
FINALLY, THERE ARE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEASTERN MT WITH A MORE WELL-DEFINED
IMPULSE AND RELATED ASCENT ALOFT. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN ND WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE-STORM RISK BY MID
TO LATE EVENING, AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING
HOURS TO IDENTIFY THEIR ASSOCIATED TRENDS.
CJS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR FROM BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN WILL PROBABLY FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WOFS IS
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE, AND NEITHER ARE
WE, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAILSTONE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED HERE IN THE PAST HOUR AND
THERE IS A LARGE INCREASING GRADIENT IN HAIL CAPE FROM JAMESTOWN
TO BISMARCK. I THINK THE MAIN CONCERN IS NOW SHIFTING MORE TO
THE WEST. NEAR FULL SUN AND INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS STILL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE CAMS AS TO WHEN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH
SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND OTHERS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRIDAY. THE WOFS IS SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 21-22 UTC.
STORM MODE WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE IN PLAY THEN. LCL HEIGHTS ARE
PRETTY HIGH THOUGH SO THE THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TO WEST
CENTRAL LOOKS LOWER THAN IN THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL MAX IN THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL THE TORNADO THREAT
REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE. ALSO LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEIR UPDRAFTS. A
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR SYSTEM MAY STILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR THIS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT HAS
BACKED OFF FROM YESTERDAY. SPC HAS PULLED THE ENHANCED AREA OUT
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. YESTERDAY, CONVECTION FIRING OUT WEST
OR ALONG THE EAST TO WEST BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ND
TRANSITIONED INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT
TRACKED INTO SOUTHEAST ND. THAT'S NOT REALLY SHOWING UP TODAY.
ALTHOUGH A SMALLER LINEAR OR BOWING SEGMENT FROM ANY CONVECTION
THAT FIRES OVER WESTERN ND CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CONSISTENCY IN CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
EITHER DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ND (FROM MONTANA
OR SASKATCHEWAN) AND TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT OVERALL VERY PERPLEXING WITH LITTLE
AGREEMENT IN THE CAMS. ALSO DO NOT WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG, AND THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MENTIONED IN A
PRIOR DISCUSSION, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DOES REMAIN
AND IF YOU DO HAVE PLANS THAT TAKE YOU OUTDOORS, REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.
FRIDAY MAY BE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH LITTLE
AGREEMENT IN CAMS AND POSSIBLY SOME MORNING CONVECTION TO
THROW ANOTHER WRENCH INTO THINGS. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THE THREAT
SEEMS A BIT LOWER WITH INSTABILITY, AND ESPECIALLY BULK SHEAR
NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
CONVECTION DOES LOOK TO TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS WE GO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE RISE THOUGH, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA, AND PERHAPS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE SEE A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH OCCASIONAL
IMPULSES BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS (LOWER 80S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CONVECTION IS EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR BACK TO THE BISMARCK AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS IN THE
FAR NORTH.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND +50 KT WIND GUSTS. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AT
LEAST IFR LEVELS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CJS
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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