092
FXUS63 KBIS 031001
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
501 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 PERCENT) DURING THE
DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE
DAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
HIGH OVER MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER
ONTARIO. OVER OUR AREA, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH, RESULTING IN ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST IN AN AREA OF MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (~500-1000 J/KG). STORMS HAVE TAMED DOWN
NOTABLY FROM EARLIER, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY
THAT RANDOMLY STRENGTHEN FOR A BRIEF MOMENT. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
LATER TODAY, WE REMAIN IN A PERSISTANT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF MODEST SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG, BUT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
QUITE MEAGER, AROUND 20-30 KTS. THEREFORE, STORMS WILL HAVE
TROUBLE SUSTAINING ANY STRENGTH, BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CANT RULE OUT A FEW PUSHING UP TO SEVERE LIMITS.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
ON SATURDAY, FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY EARLY, THOUGH STILL REMAINS A
BIT CYCLONIC JUSTIFYING LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY, THOUGH THESE WOULD PROBABLY BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN. BY
LATE DAY/EVENING RIDGING DEVELOPS, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR SUNDAY, MODEST RIDGING WILL BRING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA, WITH MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 90S. A TROUGH
PASSING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN ENOUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WE END UP IN A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, THOUGH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH MAY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND +50 KT WIND GUSTS. ANY STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AT
LEAST IFR LEVELS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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