523
FXUS63 KBIS 031142
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 PERCENT) DURING THE
DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE
DAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.
OTHERWISE, ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS MORNING AS GUIDANCE IS NOW HOLDING THE BETTER CHANCES UNTIL
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
HIGH OVER MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER
ONTARIO. OVER OUR AREA, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH, RESULTING IN ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST IN AN AREA OF MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (~500-1000 J/KG). STORMS HAVE TAMED DOWN
NOTABLY FROM EARLIER, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY
THAT RANDOMLY STRENGTHEN FOR A BRIEF MOMENT. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
LATER TODAY, WE REMAIN IN A PERSISTANT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF MODEST SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG, BUT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
QUITE MEAGER, AROUND 20-30 KTS. THEREFORE, STORMS WILL HAVE
TROUBLE SUSTAINING ANY STRENGTH, BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CANT RULE OUT A FEW PUSHING UP TO SEVERE LIMITS.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
ON SATURDAY, FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY EARLY, THOUGH STILL REMAINS A
BIT CYCLONIC JUSTIFYING LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY, THOUGH THESE WOULD PROBABLY BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN. BY
LATE DAY/EVENING RIDGING DEVELOPS, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR SUNDAY, MODEST RIDGING WILL BRING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA, WITH MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 90S. A TROUGH
PASSING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN ENOUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WE END UP IN A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, THOUGH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, AND ARE COVERED BY MULTIPLE PROB30 GROUPS IN EACH
INDIVIDUAL TAF. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH POSSIBLE ONE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH IS AFFECTING THE KMOT
TERMINAL. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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