115
FXUS63 KBIS 031847
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
147 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY (20
TO 50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST) DURING THE DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SIT
UPSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SPEED OF THIS FLOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHICH IS BRINGING
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM LOCATION,
TIMING, AND STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE SETUP IS
CHARACTERIZED BY ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. COMBINED WITH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AN MLCAPE FIELD OF 1000-2000 J/KG
IS LIKELY, WITH THE MAJOR CAVEAT THAT IT WILL REQUIRE ADEQUATE
SURFACE HEATING. A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING WHILE A
BROAD STRATUS DECK REMAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY TODAY HAS
BROUGHT STRONG INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN SHORT TERM MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS TODAY. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
UNDER POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING, A MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL SHOULD MATERIALIZE. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SHEAR ON
THE LOWER END BUT NOT INADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AGAIN THIS
SEVERE POSSIBILITY REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE REMAINS
A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE INTRODUCTION OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM MONTANA
LATE THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BEFORE RIDGING
STARTS TO SET IN. THIS WILL TREND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWNWARD,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST WILL COME WITH A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING TREND WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BY A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONT. WITH THE
CURRENTLY MODELED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FIELDS AS WELL AS 00Z
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY
ARISE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
THE COMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ACTIVE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH SOME SHIFTING IN MODEL TO MODEL
RUNS IN REGARDS TO LOCATION AND TIMING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION SO PROB30 PERIODS WERE
USED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH POSSIBLE ONE-INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER CONCERN
WOULD BE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...TWH
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