921
FXUS63 KBIS 040014
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT (20 TO 50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST) DURING THE DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING A BRIEF SEVERE STORM OVER FORT
YATES. THE INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRAMATICALLY DECREASED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, AND THE LIGHTNING OBSERVATION NETWORK
SHOWS NO THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT OUTFLOW FROM THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
MONTANA. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN A BROADER NORTH-SOUTH LINEAR
COMPLEX HAVE BEEN SEVERE AT TIMES AND PRODUCED LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. BY THE TIME THESE STORMS REACH THE ND/MT AROUND 10-11
PM CDT, THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE DECOUPLING, AND THE STORMS
SHOULD BE ENTERING A WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT ANALYSIS OF DCAPE REMAINS ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THOUGH, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
HIGHER WIND GUSTS (AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH) WITH THIS CONVECTION.
CAMS THAT ARE ASSIMILATING THIS CONVECTION MODEL IT TO BE
DECAYING AS IT ENTERS FARTHER INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SIT
UPSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SPEED OF THIS FLOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WHICH IS BRINGING
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM LOCATION,
TIMING, AND STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE SETUP IS
CHARACTERIZED BY ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. COMBINED WITH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AN MLCAPE FIELD OF 1000-2000 J/KG
IS LIKELY, WITH THE MAJOR CAVEAT THAT IT WILL REQUIRE ADEQUATE
SURFACE HEATING. A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING WHILE A
BROAD STRATUS DECK REMAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY TODAY HAS
BROUGHT STRONG INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN SHORT TERM MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS TODAY. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
UNDER POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING, A MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL SHOULD MATERIALIZE. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SHEAR ON
THE LOWER END BUT NOT INADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AGAIN THIS
SEVERE POSSIBILITY REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE REMAINS
A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE INTRODUCTION OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM MONTANA
LATE THIS EVENING.
ON SATURDAY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BEFORE RIDGING
STARTS TO SET IN. THIS WILL TREND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWNWARD,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST WILL COME WITH A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING TREND WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BY A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONT. WITH THE
CURRENTLY MODELED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FIELDS AS WELL AS 00Z
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY
ARISE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
THE COMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ACTIVE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH SOME SHIFTING IN MODEL TO MODEL
RUNS IN REGARDS TO LOCATION AND TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING AVIATION IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ENTER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THEY COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT KXWA AND KDIK, WITH ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN EXPECTED HAZARD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THESE CLOUDS REMAINS LOW, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THEY COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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