050
FXUS63 KBIS 041706
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TODAY, UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON
SUNDAY. MODEST COOLING TREND THEN DEVELOPS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL, BUT A LAYER OF
STRATUS REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF BOTTINEAU AND NORTHERN MCHENRY
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME TOWERING AC TRACKING TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND A
LONE SHOWER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO POPS BUT IN GENERAL, KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, TRIMMING FROM WEST TO EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AREAS OF FOG, MAINLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER, WE DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10
AM. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET THIS MORNING. NO
OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA, SO HAVE
REMOVED CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
PATCHY FOG REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH VISIBILITIES VARYING
GREATLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, WITH
FLAT HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODEST SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA HAS LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, THOUGH COVERAGE HAS NOTABLY DECREASED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
FOR TODAY, THE NEXT MODEST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST, WITH 0-6KM
VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. SO, CAN'T RULE UP A STRONGER STORM
BRIEFLY PULSING UP, BUT HOLDING THAT STRENGTH WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BY
LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, MODEST RIDGE FLATTENS AS A
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH
AROUND 40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE, SPC HAS NOTED A
MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WITH HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF ATTIM, BUT
SHOULD ONE DEVELOP OVER A TAF SITE, MVFR VSBYS AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY,
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKING UP, CHANCES LOOK TO BE
LOW ATTIM.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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