625
FXUS63 KBIS 041940
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ARE PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SUNDAY. A MODEST
COOLING TREND THEN DEVELOPS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AND AREA OF AGITATED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN EMMONS
COUNTY, NEAR THE MCINTOSH COUNTY LINE. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF
VERY UNSTABLE AIR, WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG, AS IS MUCH
OF CENTRAL ND ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND CIN
IS MINIMAL. SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA IS MINIMAL, BUT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED CU IS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. HAIL
CAPE OVER CENTRAL ND IS HIGH ENOUGH (700-800 J/KG) THAT AN
UPDRAFT THAT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF COULD PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT GREAT, BUT BETTER IN
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THAN THE REST OF CENTRAL ND. LAPSE RATE
ARE NOT REALLY FORECAST TO STEEPEN MUCH, IF AT ALL THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN JRV. BY THIS
EVENING, THING SHOULD QUIET DOWN, WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA, SKIRTS THE AREA. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE'S
ENOUGH OF A CROSS COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT THEY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. IT WILL ALSO BE A HOT DAY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. WILL MONITOR BUT NO HEAT
RELATED HAZARDS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
WE COOL DOWN AND DRY OUT ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. A QUASI-
ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
THE HOT DAY TOMORROW, WE COOL DOWN INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY, THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF ATTIM, BUT
SHOULD ONE DEVELOP OVER A TAF SITE, MVFR VSBYS AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY,
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKING UP, CHANCES LOOK TO BE
LOW ATTIM.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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