046
FXUS63 KBIS 051948
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO AROUND
GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
- A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL RESUME BY LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENTLY A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MONTANA. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DRAWN IN EASTERN
MONTANA, WITH A FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS BRINGING IN
THE VERY WARM AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS BRINGING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOISTURE IN.
THE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE IN THE WEST AND
NORTH TODAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST
INTO THE STATE. WE HAVE A LEVEL 1 RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST,
AND A LEVEL 2 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. DEW POINTS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S. THIS WILL CREATE AN AXIS OF
1500 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVING A TIGHT GRADIENT, THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE 35 TO 50 KTS OF SHEAR ACROSS THE SAME
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE A DRIER LOW TO MID LEVELS, AND A
SLIGHT CAP SO THESE MAY JUST BE ELEVATED STORMS. THEREFORE WE
ARE ONLY EXPECTING A HAIL AND WINDS THREAT. HAIL COULD BE UP TO
TWO INCHES BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON STORM MODE. WITH THE DRIER
LOW AND MID LEVELS, THE SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CLASSIC INVERTED V
LOOK. WIND GUSTS COULD BE UP TO 60 OR 70MPH. FOR MOST OR ALL OF
THE EVENT STORM MODE LOOKS LINEAR BASED ON THE CAMS. THE LARGER
HAIL COULD HAPPEN IF THE STORMS ARE ISOLATED BEFORE FORMING
INTO A LINE. STORM INITIATION LOOKS TO BE IN A FEW HOURS,
BETWEEN 4 AND 6PM CT. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME BILLOW CLOUDS
IN FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO CUMULUS CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO GROW NORTH
AND EAST OF WILLISTON WITH LIGHT RADAR ECHOS, SO MAYBE THE
TIMING IS CLOSER TO 4PM. STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, SEVERE OR NOT.
MONDAY THERE IS ANOTHER SEVERE RISK IN THE EAST AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE EAST. THERE IS A LEVEL 1 RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH AROUND 35KTS OF SHEAR, AND AT LEAST
1500 J/KG CAPE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AFTER THE DIURNAL HEATING TAKE FULL EFFECT. MONDAY WILL
ALSO BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE WEST FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STARTING MONDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
REGULATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MULTIPLE
WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SINCE IT IS JULY THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, THE MID TO UPPER 90S
COULD RETURN AS A LARGE DESERT SOUTHWEST HIGH COULD FORM AND
PUSH THE VERY WARM AIR NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, HOWEVER
EXACT PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN SO A PROB30 WAS USED. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH AROUND 20KTS TODAY, ERRATIC AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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