674
FXUS63 KBIS 060409
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
- A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL RESUME BY LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS OVERALL DIMINISHED THUS THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM
CDT. SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN IN THE NORTH
ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THESE COULD HAVE HAIL TO 1
INCH DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A SECOND WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA,
WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS NEXT WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH STORMS
ARE STARTING TO LOOSE STRENGTH. SURFACE CAPPING STARTING TO TAKE
OVER, WITH STORMS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED. THEY ARE
ALSO STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER SHEAR AREAS. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY STILL KEEP SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED FRONT.
THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS. AREAS NORTH OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE EVENING. THUS THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR WILLIAMS,
DIVIDE, AND BURKE COUNTIES. OF NOTE ARE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER AN
INCH SO FAR. ISOLATED BRIEF FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ALONG THE MENTIONED FRONT IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MONTANA. IF
THESE STORM HOLD TOGETHER, THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HIGHER
SHOULD COULD BRING A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH THIS
WAVE. MULTI CLUSTER TO PERHAPS LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT
THE HAIL THREAT. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH
GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 11 PM CDT / 10 PM MDT. WATCH
WAS RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AS WELL. OVERALL
MULTICLUSTER STORMS HAVE DISPLAYED PULSE LIKE TENDENCIES, WITH
FEW OF THESE STORMS BRIEFLY SHOWING SUPERCELL LIKE STRUCTURE.
WITH AMPLE CAPE AND DCAPE HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
THREAT. SOMEWHAT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS INDICATE LIMITED SRH
AVAILABLE FOR TORNADOES, THUS THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW. AS
THESE STORMS PUSH EASTWARD THEY MAY OUTRUN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR ALONG THE ONGOING BOUNDARIES. THUS THE FORECAST IS FOR
STORMS TO WEEKEND LATER IN THE EVENING. FOR NOW ANYONE IN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL ERODE SOME CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
MIX LAYER CAPPING MAY REMAIN. SATELLITE SHOWING A LINE OF
CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP IN MCKENZIE COUNTY CURRENTLY, WITH
ANOTHER BOUNDARY NEAR PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY 2 NORTH, WITH SOME
BILLOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE. WHERE THESE
TWO BOUNDARIES SET UP AND ESPECIALLY MEET WILL BE THE LIKELY
AREA TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
AMOUNTS OF CAPE WITH MODEST TO HIGH SHEAR WILL PROVIDE FOR A
HAIL THREAT UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH ANY ROTATING
SUPERCELLS. MULTI- CLUSTER STORMS MAY DOMINATE TODAY, ALTHOUGH
SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MENTIONED NORTH-SOUTH
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SETTING UP IN MCKENZIE COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD.
HIGH DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND 0 TO 3 KM SHEAR OVER 20 KNOTS
WOULD INDICATE STRONG WINDS ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS. A MORE
LINEAR MODE OF STORMS, POTENTIALLY IN THE WEST- EAST BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTH COULD PERHAPS SEE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER. ELEVATED
STORMS WOULD ALSO HAVE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WITH SOME INVERTED V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP. TORNADO THREAT IS OVERALL LOW.
THERE IS SOME HIGH STP IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE BILLOW CLOUDS
ARE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE. THIS AREA IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
MENTIONED NORTHERN FRONT, THUS SURFACE BASED STORMS MIGHT BE
TOUGH TO DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE STP IS LOW AND HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE. SOME SUPERCELL INTERACTION CAN ALWAYS CHANGE THIS
THREAT, THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW TORNADO THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENTLY A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MONTANA. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DRAWN IN EASTERN
MONTANA, WITH A FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS BRINGING IN
THE VERY WARM AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS BRINGING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOISTURE IN.
THE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE IN THE WEST AND
NORTH TODAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST
INTO THE STATE. WE HAVE A LEVEL 1 RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST,
AND A LEVEL 2 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. DEW POINTS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S. THIS WILL CREATE AN AXIS OF
1500 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVING A TIGHT GRADIENT, THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE 35 TO 50 KTS OF SHEAR ACROSS THE SAME
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE A DRIER LOW TO MID LEVELS, AND A
SLIGHT CAP SO THESE MAY JUST BE ELEVATED STORMS. THEREFORE WE
ARE ONLY EXPECTING A HAIL AND WINDS THREAT. HAIL COULD BE UP TO
TWO INCHES BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON STORM MODE. WITH THE DRIER
LOW AND MID LEVELS, THE SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CLASSIC INVERTED V
LOOK. WIND GUSTS COULD BE UP TO 60 OR 70MPH. FOR MOST OR ALL OF
THE EVENT STORM MODE LOOKS LINEAR BASED ON THE CAMS. THE LARGER
HAIL COULD HAPPEN IF THE STORMS ARE ISOLATED BEFORE FORMING
INTO A LINE. STORM INITIATION LOOKS TO BE IN A FEW HOURS,
BETWEEN 4 AND 6PM CT. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME BILLOW CLOUDS
IN FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO CUMULUS CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO GROW NORTH
AND EAST OF WILLISTON WITH LIGHT RADAR ECHOS, SO MAYBE THE
TIMING IS CLOSER TO 4PM. STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, SEVERE OR NOT.
MONDAY THERE IS ANOTHER SEVERE RISK IN THE EAST AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE EAST. THERE IS A LEVEL 1 RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH AROUND 35KTS OF SHEAR, AND AT LEAST
1500 J/KG CAPE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AFTER THE DIURNAL HEATING TAKE FULL EFFECT. MONDAY WILL
ALSO BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE WEST FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STARTING MONDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
REGULATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MULTIPLE
WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SINCE IT IS JULY THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, THE MID TO UPPER 90S
COULD RETURN AS A LARGE DESERT SOUTHWEST HIGH COULD FORM AND
PUSH THE VERY WARM AIR NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE FOUND AND SOME WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
EVENINGS STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. USED A MIX OF TEMPO AND PROB30
GROUPS FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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