171
FXUS63 KBIS 062345
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND SPREADING ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONLY A LOW RISK OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM EXISTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-94.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTH DAKOTA IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH DICKEY COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS AS CLOSE AS RANSOM INTO SARGENT COUNTY, BUT RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY INDICATION THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ITS WAY INTO DICKEY COUNTY BEFORE THE FRONT FULLY PUSHES
OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW END
POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHEASTERN DICKEY SEES A THUNDERSTORM BUT
THIS CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HALF OF
THE STATE MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CAMS HAVE STORMS
GOING UP ALONG THE FRONT HAS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER,
THE FRONT HAS ALMOST MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
PUSHING THE THREAT FURTHER EAST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS RESIDUAL
CAPE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES A SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE
MAIN FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING HIGH RAIN RATES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER AN AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER RISK ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE GREATER RISK AREA IS IN SOUTH DAKOTA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES. CSU ML PROGRAM DOES HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MULTIPLE WAVES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE 70S AND 80S BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST THIS COMING
WEEKEND SUPPORTING A ROUND OF HOT WEATHER. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
ON SUNDAY DOES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR KBIS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CEILINGS AT 6K-10K FEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED -SHRA AND
ISOLATED -TSRA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY VFR WITH
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22
KTS, WITH WEAKER WINDS AT KMOT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...EDWARDS
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...EDWARDS
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