851
FXUS63 KBIS 070913
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
CENTRAL ND AS OF 2 AM MDT. BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS IS
SITUATED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, BUT INSTABILITY IS
GENERALLY WEAK WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOT FAR
SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, BUT TAPERING TO ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG
NORTH OF THE STATE LINE, IN FAR SOUTHWEST ND. WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR, STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A COUPLE OF CAMS DO SHOW MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
08-10 UTC TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH CAPE TO GET SOME
STRONGER CELLS. WE DID ISSUE A SPS FOR ON CELL IN BOWMAN COUNTY
ALREADY. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY SETTLES DOWN, THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS PRETTY LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOUGH. THINK THE BETTER THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INSTABILITY
GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SD BORDER. A FEW OF THE CAMS DO
SHOW WAVES OF INSTABILITY LIFTING NORTH AROUND MIDDAY TODAY,
BUT CIN MAY BE ENOUGH GIVEN CLOUDY SKIES AND ONGOING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO INHIBIT STRONGER INSTABILITY ALOFT. TONIGHT
INSTABILITY ALOFT DOES LIFT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE BORDER AGAIN.
THE HIGHEST THREAT IN ND LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-94, AND
ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE SD BORDER. BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 30-50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SHEAR VECTORS
MORE PARALLEL TO THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE
BORDER, IT LOOKS LIKE STORM MODE MAY BE MORE MESSY, LIMITING THE
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL
AND 60 MPH WINDS FOR THE MAIN HAZARDS
WE QUIET DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 25-30 KTS, BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE WILL
PROBABLY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR DOES LOOK TO BE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
NORTH TO SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPECIFICS FOR
HAZARDS. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY.
AFTER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER A GOOD
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 WILL PRODUCE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NBM ENSEMBLE SPREADS DO BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES FOR
BISMARCK ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENT OF TOP END TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE
ALREADY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
HOT TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TO
BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
IN THE NORTHWEST WITH CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST MT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ND SHORTLY. SHOWER AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CEILINGS AT 6K-10K FEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY
VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS, WITH
WEAKER WINDS AT KMOT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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