489
FXUS63 KBIS 071938
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE
MAIN FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MUCAPE
AXIS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WHICH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER AN AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY HAD AN MCV ROLL THROUGH THE REGION SO THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG STORMS
REMAIN IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
DAILY CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE AS MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS. CSU ML
PROGRAM AND NSSL ML PROGRAM DOES HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS NOW
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK DUE
INCREASED INSTABILITY, DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND MULTIPLE WAVES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DECREASE BY TOMORROW INTO THE 70S AND 80S BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST THIS COMING
WEEKEND SUPPORTING A ROUND OF HOT WEATHER. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
ON SUNDAY DOES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR KBIS.
THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS 100 AND 99.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MODELS ARE FORECASTING LOWER CEILINGS MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING FORTH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. A SYSTEM HAS
BROUGHT FORTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING SLIGHT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY
TOMORROW LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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