774
FXUS63 KBIS 080030
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
730 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. CLASSIC SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TRAINING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS POINTED INTO MID/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
PERPENDICULAR TO CORFIDI VECTORS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS ALSO SUPPORT VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. RECENT CAMS FAVOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS
LAKE OAHE THROUGH LATE EVENING, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHICH
SIDE OF THE ND/SD BORDER THIS COULD FALL ON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS
THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MUCAPE
AXIS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WHICH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER AN AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY HAD AN MCV ROLL THROUGH THE REGION SO THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG STORMS
REMAIN IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
DAILY CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE AS MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS. CSU ML
PROGRAM AND NSSL ML PROGRAM DOES HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS NOW
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK DUE
INCREASED INSTABILITY, DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND MULTIPLE WAVES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DECREASE BY TOMORROW INTO THE 70S AND 80S BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST THIS COMING
WEEKEND SUPPORTING A ROUND OF HOT WEATHER. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
ON SUNDAY DOES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR KBIS.
THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS 100 AND 99.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, WITH HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO IFR LEVELS, GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KJMS AND KBIS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PERHAPS FALLING TO IFR
OR EVEN LIFR IN THE SOUTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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