844
FXUS63 KBIS 080347
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1047 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 95 TO 105.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THOUGH ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER
EAST OF LAKE OAHE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALSO NO LONGER ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SEPARATE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO FOG FORMATION INCLUDE
FRESH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY, LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, AN
EAST- NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW, AND EXISTING LOW STRATUS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. CLASSIC SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TRAINING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS POINTED INTO MID/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
PERPENDICULAR TO CORFIDI VECTORS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS ALSO SUPPORT VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. RECENT CAMS FAVOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS
LAKE OAHE THROUGH LATE EVENING, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHICH
SIDE OF THE ND/SD BORDER THIS COULD FALL ON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS
THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MUCAPE
AXIS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WHICH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER AN AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY HAD AN MCV ROLL THROUGH THE REGION SO THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG STORMS
REMAIN IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
DAILY CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE AS MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS. CSU ML
PROGRAM AND NSSL ML PROGRAM DOES HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS NOW
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK DUE
INCREASED INSTABILITY, DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND MULTIPLE WAVES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DECREASE BY TOMORROW INTO THE 70S AND 80S BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST THIS COMING
WEEKEND SUPPORTING A ROUND OF HOT WEATHER. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
ON SUNDAY DOES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR KBIS.
THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS 100 AND 99.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS WILL A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAINFALL AT
KXWA AND KMOT, MAJOR TERMINALS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
THE LOW CEILINGS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE PERSISTING IN
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE, COVERAGE, AND
INTENSITY OF FOG IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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