571
FXUS63 KBIS 221506
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1006 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AT THE TIME OF THIS LAT MORNING UPDATE. LOWERED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO PATCHY
FOG AND SOME NEAR SURFACE SMOKE HAVE IMPROVED, LEAVING MAINLY
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME, AS IT
REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS THAT HAVE
CLEAR SKIES. WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG, TRAPPED WILDFIRE SMOKE, OR A COMBINATION OF
BOTH. FOR NOW ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO CAPTURE THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE
FOUND TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH EXITS THE EAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
TODAY, BRINGING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL ALSO BRING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR
TODAY. HRRR SMOKE SHOWING PERHAPS SOME LOW AMOUNTS OF SMOKE
LINGERING TODAY, ALTHOUGH SHOULD DIMINISH AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. FOR NOW KEPT SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ALSO
BE LIMITED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S THEN LOOK TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS FOUND
ALOFT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SD. MEANWHILE, SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
ACROSS THE NORTH COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ANOTHER DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY, SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH
STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR MOST
AREAS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, COMBINED WITH A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND COULD BRING NEAR
CRITICAL TO PERHAPS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE,
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST COULD PROVIDE
FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. SPC DID CLIP PARTS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE CSU-MLP SEVERE FORECAST ALSO
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
ND. SHEAR IS MODEST TO HIGH FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
ONLY ADEQUATE FOR STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS ALSO GOING TO BE
SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME WITH THE WARMING ALOFT EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN OUR CWA STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC MENTIONS SURFACE
BASED STORMS HAVE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS 95 TO 105.
GULF MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO BE CUT OFF FOR SATURDAY, WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT LIKELY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE RESULT COULD BE
EVEN LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT WINDS ON
SATURDAY, AS WELL AS THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH A MORE DRY
HEAT ON SATURDAY, HEAT PRODUCTS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED AS WELL. HOT
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS FROM A
WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
LINGER, SOME HEAT PRODUCTS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AGAIN ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
MENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE TRYING TO
FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON JUST
HOW MUCH WEAKENING CAN HAPPEN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHTLY
COOLER YET STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF
THIS POTENTIAL FLATTENING. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY RIDGE RIDING WAVES CAN MOVE
THROUGH, WHICH WOULD ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON HOW MUCH FLATTENING
OCCURS. LOW RH VALUES ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO LINGER AT LEAST SOME INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND SOME SMOKE AROUND, SOME PATCHY
LOW LYING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING. SOME SITES ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING MIST WITH MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION, ALTHOUGH
DO HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR MIST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY, BECOMING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND LATER IN THE DAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY FORECAST CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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