684
FXUS63 KBIS 221933
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
233 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SITUATED
AS WE ARE BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A
HUDSON BAY LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THIS PATTERN, DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLY PRECPITATION OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH WE CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LINGERING SMOKE REMAINS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME
OF THIS SMOKE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURNS
INCREASINGLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL AGAIN SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY,
THIS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STYMIED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
KEEPING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S RANGE. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY (MODEL VALUES APPROX
500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER) AND THE FAVORABLE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH THIS WEAK WAVE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS THEN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING INTO LOWER 90S TO LOWER
100S, AND WITH DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS POTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL, MODEL MUCAPE VALUES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO RISING INTO THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE.
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND THIS TIME ALSO BEGIN TO PEAK
INTO INTO THE 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER
REGARDING LOCATION AND COVERAGE RELATING TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY. OVERALL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD IS RELATIVELY
WEAK, AND THE GREATEST HEIGHT RISES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT UP IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL, SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OVERLAP TO GET THINGS GOING. THAT BEING SAID, CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE SOME CI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER POINT OF CONTENTION IS POTENTIAL
STORM MODE. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT / SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY
ORIENTATED IN A SSW TO NNE DIRECTION BETWEEN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UP THROUGH THE GRAND FORKS AREA. WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS ROUGHLY
AT AT AROUND 45 DEGREE ANGLE OR LESS TO THIS POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HERE MAY BE MORE OF A MIXED
STORM MODE. ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT ADVERTISING POTENTIAL
HAZARDS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A SHAMBLE. MY CURRENT FEELING IS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS GOING TO BE
DAMAGING WIND, AS HIGH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000- 1500 J/KG
EXPECTED, AND HIGH LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0-10.0 C/KM WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS FROM THE JET TO MIX DOWN TOWARD THE
SURFACE, AND AS THE DRY, INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL DOWNWARD ACCELERATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
PROCESSES. OTHERWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
THERE, ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE, SURFACE-BASED STORMS MANAGES
TO POKE THROUGH THE RESIDUAL CIN LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGHEST HAIL THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP, AS HINTED BY SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AND THE MODEST CLOCKWISE ELONGATION OF THE HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL, INCLUDE THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. AS IT STANDS, THE SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN POINT OF CONCERN FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND IS GOING TO BE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE, WITH SUCH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN LAST WEEK'S HEAT EVENT, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN CRITERIA FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY VERSUS AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING DURING THIS
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP EVALUATING THIS PERIOD MOVING
FORWARD, ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE CAMS BEGIN TO GET INGESTED
INTO THE NBM BY TOMORROW. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND IS FIRE WEATHER. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A
PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW COOLER, YET
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK, FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS ALSO COMPARABLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECPITATION THAN
THIS WEEK'S, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ANY GIVEN DAY. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECPITATION OR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ADVERTISED BY THE ENSEMBLE FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND SOME SMOKE AROUND, SOME PATCHY
LOW LYING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING. SOME SITES ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING MIST WITH MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION, ALTHOUGH
DO HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR MIST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY, BECOMING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND LATER IN THE DAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY FORECAST CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...FGF
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